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MARKET COMMENTARY
3M LME copper traded in the range of $8245-$8704.5 in January. Copper prices tested $8245, the lowest level since December 6, on January 18, as data from China increased demand concerns and pressured by expectations that the US Federal Reserve would postpone interest rate cuts. When we came to the end of the month, it tested the highest level since December 28 at $8704.5, with the dollar retreating due to weak US labor market data before the Fed decision, and completed the month at $8615.5 with a 0.62% gain.
Copper prices started the first week of 2024 with a gain, supported by low stocks and increasing incentive hopes due to manufacturing data from China. Copper facing losses due to the uncertainties of US interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the dollar, it completed the week with a loss of 1.72% at $8415.
China's consumer price index (CPI) decreased to 0.3% in December, compared to the previous year, when it was expected to decrease by 0.4%.
Markets rose with support from the announcement of US foreign trade data as -63.2 billion dollars, above the expectations of -65.5 billion dollars. In the USA, CPI increased by 3.4% on an annual basis, above expectations of 3.2%.
Although 3M LME copper faced losses ahead of Chinese and US data, it rose to $8483 on 9 January, supported by low-level buying and a weakening dollar. It finished the 2nd week at $8295, with a loss of 1.43%, after testing the level of $8292.5, the lowest level since December 13, with expectations that the Fed might delay interest rate cuts following the strong inflation data from the USA.
In China, gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 5.2% in the fourth quarter, below expectations of 5.3%.
3M LME copper tested $8245, the lowest level since December 6, in the 3rd week, as data from China increased demand concerns and pressured by expectations that the US Federal Reserve will postpone interest rate cuts. 3M LME copper completed the 3rd week at $8380 with a 1.02% gain, with the support of buying from low levels.
Copper prices tested $8599, the highest level since January 2nd, in the 4th week, as expectations that the biggest consumer, China, will make more incentive statements to support the economy have strengthened. 3M LME copper gave back some of its gains due to the pressure of the gains in the dollar and the effect of sales from high levels and completed the 4th week with a 1.78% gain at $8529.
3M LME copper tested the highest level since December 28 at $8704.5 in the 5th week, due to the expectations that the Fed would start reducing interest rates before the Fed decision and the retreat of the dollar on weak US labor market data. It completed the month at $8615.5 with a 0.62% gain.
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MARKET COMMENTARY
3M LME copper traded in the range of $8238-$8716 in December. LME copper fell to $8238, under pressure from the rise in inventories, renewed doubts about China's demand prospects and the strengthening of the dollar. Towards the end of the month, LME copper tested $8716, the highest level since August 1, with the support of the weakening dollar following industrial profit increases in China and strengthening expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024. LME copper closed December with a 1.09% gain at $8562.
LME copper, which stopped its three-session series of declines in the 49th week due to the strong export data from China and the effect of the weak dollar, finished the week with losses, even though it rose on December 8 with the hope of interest rate cuts that will revive the economy in 2024.
Copper prices gained 2.30% on December 14, recording the biggest daily gain in almost a year, supported by the weak dollar and expectations that the US interest rate cuts next year will increase economic growth and demand for the metal. 3M LME copper completed the 50th week at $8525 with a 1.03% gain.
Copper prices rose to $8665 on December 20, with the weakening dollar following the downward revision of economic growth in the USA and increasing hopes for an interest rate cut next year, and completed the 51st week at $8570 with a 0.53% gain.
3M LME Copper tested $8716 towards the end of December, the highest level since August 1, supported by industrial profit increases in leading metal consumer China, strengthening expectations that the Fed is coming to an end of interest rate hikes, production disruptions and a weak dollar. It completed the 52nd week at $8562 with a loss of 0.09% due to the pressure of profit sales from the high level.
3M LME copper traded in the range of $7856-$9550.5 in 2023. Supported by low inventories and hopes that demand in China will increase later in the year, LME copper started 2023 strongly, testing $9550.50 on January 18, the highest level since June 10. Although it fell to $7856 due to demand concerns in China, the largest consumer, and the hawkish attitudes of major central banks towards increasing interest rates, it completed 2023 at $8562 with a 2.25% gain.
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MARKET COMMENTARY
3M LME copper traded in the $8020-$8500 range in November. LME copper, which fell to $8020 under the pressure of Chinese trade data showing that the economic recovery in the world's largest consumer was unstable, rose to $8500 towards the end of the month on supply concerns caused by news of production cuts in major mines in Panama and Peru and hopes that China would extend economic support. and completed November at $8469,5 with a 4.32% gain.
Although 3M LME copper fell to $8080 on the first trading day of November, it recovered its losses with the support of the weakening US dollar after the Fed did not change interest rates and the supply disruptions that increased with the continuation of conflicts in the Middle East, tested $8218 and completed the 44th week at $8168.5 with a 0.96% gain.
With the positive impact of the weakening of the dollar and China's determination to increase imports, 3M LME copper rose to $ 8,260 at the beginning of the 45th week.Although 3M LME copper found support from the weakening dollar before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, it remained under pressure following the economic uncertainty in China, the leading metal consumer, and the hawkish comments of Fed officials, and finished the week with a 1.64% loss at $8034,5.
3M LME copper tested $8321.5, the highest level since October 2, with the positive effect of China's new statements supporting the economy and the US inflation data strengthening the expectations that the Fed's interest rate hikes have come to an end, and completed the 46th week at $8309 with a 2.42% gain.
First Quantum Minerals began maintenance at its Cobre Panama mine on November 23 after supplies of coal and other materials were blocked by protesters. Then, workers at the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru began an "indefinite" strike starting from the 47th week. 3M LME copper tested the highest level since September 15 at $8486 on November 21, supported by supply disruptions and a weak US dollar. The largest consumer maintained most of its gains, supported by economic stimulus announcements in China, finishing the week with a 1.58% gain at $8440.
3M LME copper continued its upward trend in the 48th week and completed November at $8469,5 with a 4.32% premium, supported by the slowing manufacturing activities in China increasing hopes that the government will give more incentives, supply disruptions in major mines in Panama and Peru and losses in the dollar.
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MARKET COMMENTARY
3M LME copper started October with losses, falling to $7856 due to the pressure of conflicts in the Middle East and the real estate crisis in China. LME copper tested the $8231 level in the 2nd half of October, with the support of decreasing copper stocks and incentive statements from China to support the economy. Copper, trying to compensate for its losses, completed October with a loss of 1.89% at $8119.
3M LME copper tested $7870 in the 40th week, the lowest level since May 24, driven by ongoing concerns about Chinese demand, higher interest rates and uncertainty about global growth. LME copper closed the week at $8045 with a loss of 2.78%, due to US non-farm employment data.
Copper prices fell to $7927.5 in the 41st week, under the pressure of the news that Chinese real estate company Country Garden may not be able to pay its debts and the increase in LME stocks. LME copper remained under pressure after demand concerns in China, the largest consumer, and US inflation data supported the dollar, finishing the week with a 1.33% loss at $7938.
3M LME copper fell to $7891 as the US dollar rose slightly ahead of Powell's speech and the risk of an escalation in the war on the global economy in the Middle East. 3M LME copper recovered its losses and completed the 42nd week at $7940 with a 0.03% gain, as growth data from China, the leading metal consumer, exceeded expectations and increased hopes for more incentives.
3M LME copper tested the lowest level since 28.11.2022 at $7856, as the real estate crisis in China increased concerns about copper demand, as well as the strong dollar and conflicts in the Middle East. 3M LME copper closed the 43rd week with a 1.90% gain at $8091, supported by renewed hopes for demand following the decision of top consumer China to introduce new stimulus measures to support the economy.
At the beginning of the 44th week, 3M LME copper rose to $8231, supported by declining copper stocks and hopes of increased Chinese demand. Copper prices compensated for some of their losses and completed October at $8119, with the support of the weakening US dollar after the Fed did not change interest rates and the supply disruptions that increased due to the continuation of conflicts in the Middle East.
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MARKET COMMENTARY
LME copper started month by rising to $8599 on September 1, with incentive statements to support the economy in China. Copper faced losses in September and fell to $8068 due to concerns that the US would keep interest rates higher than expected for longer than expected and concerns about demand in China continued. LME copper closed September with a 1.92% loss at $8275.
3M LME copper rose to $8534 at the beginning of the 36th week, as expectations for policy support from China, the largest consumer, and the weakening dollar increased risk appetite for metals. Copper prices faced sharp losses, falling to $8213, after the sharp increase in LME stocks and weak trade data from China, the leading metal consumer, increased demand concerns, and finished the week with a 3.08% loss at $8230.
3M LME copper rose to $8507.5 as the increase in inflation in the USA increased hopes that the US Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged in the 37th week and the largest consumer, China, raised 0.25 basis points in reserve provision. Copper prices rose with the support of China's new incentive steps, as well as industrial production and real estate investment data, and completed the week at $8409 with a 2.17% gain.
The Fed signaled that the policy would remain high for a longer time by keeping the interest rate constant, and increased the interest rate target for 2024, creating confusion in the markets. LME copper, which has been in the 8200-8600 band for a while, tested $ 8071 on September 21. 3M LME copper closed the week at $8198.5, losing 2.50%, close to the psychological limit of $8200, as rising inventories and the strengthening of the US dollar on expectations of higher long-term interest rates put the metal in a weekly downtrend.
3M LME copper rose to $8377 as China's industrial profits rose in August, but was weighed down by high copper inventories and a strong dollar and fell to $8069 in the middle of the 29th week. LME copper gave back some of its gains and finished the week with a 0.93% premium at $8275 as investors avoided taking risks ahead of the Chinese holiday.
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3M LME copper traded between $8120-$8860 in August. It fell to $8120 due to the strengthening of the dollar, the debt problems of the Chinese real estate giant Country Garden and the insufficient measures taken by the Chinese government. On the other hand, it rose to $8860 with the steps taken from China to support the economy.
3M LME copper fell to $8462.5 on August. 3 as Fitch downgraded the U.S. credit rating and weak manufacturing data from top consumer China raised concerns about demand. It showed that China's manufacturing activities entered the contraction zone for the first time since April. China Manufacturing PMI was announced as 49.2 in July, contrary to the 50.3 figure economists expected. However, after the US non-farm employment data announced on August 4 came in below expectations, it completed the week with a loss of 1.46% at $8548.5, due to the pressure of the dollar gaining value.
LME copper completed the 32nd week with a loss of nearly 3% in value, under the pressure of increasing concerns about China's economic growth and the strong dollar. While the markets were waiting for new incentive statements from the Chinese government after the weak data announced in China, copper closed the week at $8295, as the statements that did not come, as well as the increasing risk in the Chinese real estate sector, further fueled concerns about demand.
LME copper left a volatile week behind in the 33rd week, driven by rising concerns about China's real estate sector, weak data darkening the demand outlook and the impact of a strengthening dollar, followed by the intervention of the Chinese government. The debt problems of Chinese real estate giant Country Garden and the strengthening of the dollar put pressure on the market. Copper continued its decline due to the weak demand outlook after Chinese data showing that the growth in industrial production slowed down and investments in the real estate sector decreased. LME copper tested $8120 early on August 17, the lowest level since June 1, as the Chinese Government cut key policy rates to support activity. After the Central Bank of China announced steps to support the market, it largely compensated for its losses and completed the week with a loss of 0.23% at $8276.
LME copper finished the week at a gain in the 34th week, with increased purchases as China's efforts to stabilize its currency increased risk appetite, and demand expectations from China improved. However, copper prices limited their gains because the statements to support the economy in the biggest consumer, China, did not satisfy investors. 3M LME copper finished the week with a 1% gain at $8359.
3M LME copper faced losses at the beginning of the 35th week, falling to $8363, as the contraction in China's manufacturing sector highlighted weak demand expectations and the strengthening dollar strengthened the negative sentiment. 3M LME copper rose to $8599 and finished the week at $8491.5, a 1.59% gain, as China took further action to support the yuan and real estate market, a key demand sector for metals. 3M LME copper closed August with a 4.52% loss at $8437.
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3M LME copper traded in the range of $8846-$8236 in July, generally supported by the losses in the dollar and the economic supportive announcements in China, and closed the month at $8836 with a gain of 6.21%.
3M LME copper is the biggest consumer In China, it started the 27th week with a gain, with the slowdown in the industrial sector, the increase in incentive expectations supporting the economy and the support of falling stocks. However, with the Fed's hawkish stance and the strengthening of the dollar, as well as the uncertainty in the demand outlook, it closed the 27th week with a 0.56% premium at $8366,5.
3M LME copper tested its highest level since April 25 with $8719 in the 28th week, increasing its earnings with the hopes of stopping interest rate hikes in the USA after the inflation in the USA increased below expectations, as well as the expectations that China will announce new incentive measures to the economy. 3M LME copper finished the 28th week at $8671 with a gain of 3.64%.
According to the data released in China in the 29th week, the economy grew by 0.8% in the second quarter, exceeding the expectations of 0.5%, while the annual growth rate was 6.3%, below the estimates of 7.2%. 3M LME copper tumbled as low as $8361 after losing 2% earlier in the week after weak Chinese growth data capped demand expectations. Although 3M LME copper, the largest consumer, rose after the economy supporting incentive statements in China, it closed the 29th week at $8438 with a loss of 2.69% due to the pressure of the strong dollar.
3M LME copper rose as high as $8698 on Tuesday after Chinese officials promised to support the economic recovery at the beginning of the 30th week. It fell as low as $8502 on Friday after the Chinese government did not take any concrete action on incentive expectations. However, despite the Fed's announcements regarding interest rate hikes, LME copper finished the week at $8675 with a gain of 2.81%, with the support of the dollar declining on Friday, 28.07, with the expectation that the end of the interest rate hike in the markets is coming to an end.
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3M LME copper fell to $8087 in June amid global recession concerns and continued concerns about demand in China. LME copper closed June with gain of 2,58% at $8319,5 after testing $8711,5, the highest level since May 2, supported by expectations of incentive announcements to support the economy in China and low LME stocks.
3M LME copper rose for the 23rd week as concerns about slowing global economic growth boost hopes that it will provide more incentive to China's economy. 3M LME copper finished the week at a gain of 1,11% at $8339 after testing $8451 on June 9, the highest since May 11, supported by data showing the rise in weekly jobless claims in the US on Thursday, which led to the dollar's losses.
3M LME copper broke its 50-day average in the middle of the 24th week after the central bank of China cut its short term lending rate for the first time in 10 months and showed US inflation to rise moderately. 3M LME copper tested $8634 on June 16, the highest level since May 10, on the backing of a weak dollar and hopes that largest consumer China take more steps to support its economy after below expected May production data. Also, 3M LME copper closed the week at $8585, closing above its 100- and 200-day average of $8575 on Friday.
3M LME copper losses in the 25th week amid strong dollar pressure and lack of details on economic stimulus in China. 3M LME copper ended the week with a loss of 1,93% at $8419,5 after seeing the highest level since May 02 at $8711,5 by finding support from low stocks in LME on June 22.
3M LME copper made a strong start to the 26th week, testing the $8479 level as LME stocks dwindled and rain in Chile hit mining operations. Codelco, the largest copper producer, announced that it has stopped production at some of its mines in Chile due to heavy rains. More stimulus announcements from Chinese officials to the economy With slower growth in the West and pressure from rising interest rates, LME copper fell to $8331 on June 27. LME copper dropped to $8141 on June 28 as Chinese data released on Wednesday revealed weakening industrial profits and a strong dollar pressure. LME copper, which rose as high as $8329 on June 30, closed the week at $8320 with a loss of 1,19%, supported by China's promise to buy more to boost demand.
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3M LME copper started the month under the pressure of a strong dollar and demand concerns in China. After China's central bank did not change interest rates as expected, LME copper rose to $8714 as China provided new measures to support the economy. Although 3M LME copper rose after the Fed signaled it would pause interest rate hikes, it was unable to recoup losses as investors worried about demand in China, the main metal consumer. 3M LME copper closed the first week of May at $8580 with a loss of 0.18%.
3M LME copper comes under pressure from the 19th-week strong dollar and Chinese data. 3M LME copper 3M LME copper finished the week down 3.93% at $8243 after testing the lowest level since November 30, 2022 at $8136.5 amid rising global recession and demand concerns.
3M LME copper started the 20th week under the pressure of a strong dollar and slowdown in Chinese industrial production. After the central bank of China did not change interest rates as expected, LME copper rose to $8300 levels, with the expectation that China would take new measures to support the economy. However, the fact that the US debt ceiling negotiations did not reach a conclusion and the default concerns increased while decreasing the risk appetite. LME copper fell as low as $8088.5 on May 17. LME copper finished the week flat at $8242, down 0.01% on Friday, fueled by hopes that US politicians will sign an agreement to prevent default.
LME copper slumped at the start of the 21st week on concerns over uncertainty over the US debt ceiling. 3M LME copper tested $7867 on Wednesday, the lowest level since Nov. LME Copper offset some of its losses on Friday amid increased demand after the Central Bank of China (PBOC) funded the financial system through open market operations. 3M LME copper ended the week at $8139, down 1.25%, and ended May at $8110, down 5.65%.
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3M LME copper traded in the range of $8426-$9183 in April. 3M LME copper slid to $8665 in the 14th week, fueling fears over inflation and higher interest rates in the US and the biggest consumer, China, as the Chinese private sector manufacturing PMI was announced 50.0 (expected 51.7) in March from 51.6 in February. 3M LME copper finished the week down 1.47% at $8861.5 as the slowing economic outlook and renewed inflation fears triggered demand concerns among investors despite supply uncertainty. The London Metal Exchange remained closed on April 07 for the Good Friday holiday.
The London Metal Exchange was closed on Monday, April 10, for the Easter holiday. 3M LME copper, which was opened for trading on Tuesday, April 11, found direction with the movement of the dollar in the 15th week. Supported by the sharp depreciation of the dollar, LME copper closed the week at $9044 with a 2.06% gain, after testing $9183, the highest level since February 23, on April 14.
Although 3M LME copper started the 16th week with a rise due to the Chinese growth data, which was announced above the expectations of 4.5% to 4%, the effect of the data was short-lived in copper as in the Asian markets. Copper prices slumped after Fed officials commented that US interest rates would be raised further as inflation still remains at "problematic" levels. Losses in copper accelerated, driven by growing concerns about Chinese demand. 3m LME copper closed week 16 at $8781, down 2.91%.
The 3M LME rallied early in the 17th week on the back of a weaker dollar, but remained cautious ahead of sluggish demand from China and the Fed's latest meeting. 3M LME copper closed the month with a 4.43% loss at $8595.5 after testing $8426, the lowest level since January 6, in the final trading days of the 17th week as US economic data supported the dollar and investors were worried about demand in the main metal consumer China.
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