Bulletins
MARKET COMMENTARY
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in April meeting and downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth while emphasising the strength of the labour market, in a sign it was still on track for two more rate rises this year. A bounce in the dollar after the Federal Reserve played down any threats to this year's planned interest rate hikes, solidifying expectations of another move in June, pressured commodities across the board, meanwhile. Copper fell to $5.542 extending losses after its biggest one-day drop in 20 months to head towards its April lows, as rising inventories, worries over cooling demand and a bounce in the dollar all weighed.
China's factory sector lost momentum in April, with growth slowing to its weakest pace in seven months as domestic and export demand faltered and commodity prices fell. Growth in China's services sector cooled to its slowest in almost a year in April as fears of slower economic growth dented business confidence, even as cost pressures eased. Concerns that heat is evaporating from China's economy have added to downside pressure on metals. China's April copper imports fell 30 percent month on month to 300,000 tonnes and were down by a third from a year ago as a subdued outlook for industrial activity weighed on demand. Copper slid to a four-month low (at $5.463) after data showed a steep drop in imports into China, the world's biggest consumer, feeding pessimism over demand following hefty inflows into London Metal Exchange inventories.
Capping copper's gains, the dollar rose versus a currency basket, with another U.S. rate hike in June now almost certain. A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced copper more expensive for holders of other currencies. Stock markets were put on edge by U.S President Donald Trump's abrupt dismissal of FBI Director James Comey and rising tensions over North Korea's nuclear programme. The euro firmed, European stocks and U.S. stock futures hit a record high after centrist Emmanuel Macron comfortably won the French presidential election.
Support for base metals also came from a weaker U.S. currency, which makes dollar-denominated metals cheaper for non-U.S. companies, potentially boosting demand. Crude oil rose above $52 a barrel for the first time since April after Saudi Arabia and Russia said that OPEC-led output cuts need to be extended for a further nine months until March 2018.
London copper prices were steady $5.560 - $5.640 band in this week, stymied by expectations of slowing growth in the economy of top metals consumer China. After clocking 6.9 percent in the first quarter thanks to spending on infrastructure and a property boom that policymakers want to rein in, analysts surveyed by Reuters reckon 2017 economic growth will just about make Beijing's target of 6.5 percent as it slows over the rest of the year.
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Activity in China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded at the fastest pace in nearly 5 years in March, adding to evidence that the world's second-largest economy has gained momentum early this year. Long-term core numbers like these, especially in China, will underpin the global economy, and in turn could start to trigger the much-talked-about infrastructure projects, and thus, physical metals buying.
Investors were jittery about the possibility President Donald Trump's healthcare bill might not pass, suggesting he may struggle to muster the backing needed to push through fiscal measures central to the U.S. government's economic agenda. Trump's election was seen as good for markets, but he is now being seen as potentially less effective than people were thinking. Commodity markets have soared since November on expectations Trump will increase spending on infrastructure. The dollar and U.S. long-dated Treasury yields sharp dropped with with worries easing over President Donald Trump's ability to push through economic reform.
The strike at Chile's Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, is ending after workers decided to invoke a rarely used legal provision that allows them to extend their old contract. Workers returnned to work at the world's biggest copper mine in Chile after a strike that began on Feb. 9
China called on the United States to play its part in resolving trade frictions between the two countries, and said Beijing isn't devaluing its currency to boost exports as tensions simmered ahead of President Xi Jinping's first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. The United States is targeting a reduction in China's $347 billion goods trade surplus through tougher enforcement of trade laws and anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties. China's 2017 export outlook brightened considerably as it reported forecast-beating trade growth in March and as U.S. President Donald Trump softened his anti-China rhetoric in an abrupt policy shift.
A U.S. Navy strike group will move towards the western Pacific Ocean near the Korean peninsula as a show of force, a U.S. official told Reuters on Saturday, as concerns grow about North Korea's advancing weapons programme. Increasing tensions, plus a U.S. jobs report that showed the labour market was still healthy pushed the dollar to three-week highs against a basket of currencies, eroding the purchasing power of commodity buyers paying with other currencies.
Shares and the dollar fell on April 18 as a snap general election call in Britain added to a lengthening list of uncertainties for investors already on edge over North Korea and a tight presidential race in France.
The LME were closed on April 14-17 for the Easter break. The copper resumed its firmer trend after reopening following Easter break.London copper eased as rising geopolitical tensions blunted appetite for risk . Copper, hit three-month lows on April 23 to its weakest since early January at $5,530 a tonne as geopolitical worries from sabre-rattling over North Korea to a snap UK general election hurt investor appetite for cyclical assets such as base metals.
Chinese refined copper output in March rose 8.5 percent from a year ago to 764,000 tonnes, the highest since at least December 2015, official data showed. After this data, London copper rose but was mired near its lowest for the year after China's refined production surged in March, underlining ample stocks in the world's biggest metals consumer.
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In supply news, Indonesia will not back down from new rules requiring Freeport-McMoran to divest a majority stake in its local unit, its mines minister said late last week in a dispute over rights to the world's second-biggest copper mine which has frozen exports. Meanwhile, Chile expects economic activity growth to be hit by around one percentage point in February because of a strike at world no.1 copper mine Escondida, as copper output slides 12 percent year-on-year. Workers at Cerro Verde mine, one of the largest copper producers in Peru, also plan to start a five-day strike to demand better labour conditions, a union representative.
Factory activity in China expanded faster than expected in February as domestic and export demand picked up, adding to signs that the economy is gaining momentum even as fears grow of a surge in trade protectionism. Copper imports to China -- accounting global for nearly half of global consumption estimated at around 23 million tonnes this year -- totalled 340,000 tonnes in February, down 10.5 percent from January and down 19 percent from a year ago.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark lending rate a quarter point and continued to project two more increases this year, signaling more vigilance as inflation approaches its target. “In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in its statement Wednesday. “Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.” Investors had almost fully expected the increase to a range of 0.75 percent to 1 percent following unusually clear signals from policy makers including Chair Janet Yellen, who explained the committee’s thinking at a press conference in Washington. “Our decision to make another gradual reduction in the amount of policy accommodation reflects the economy’s continued progress,” she told reporters. For now, officials stuck with their “gradual” approach to tightening monetary policy, while removing the word “only when a previous statement called the approach “only gradual.” The dollar held around five-week lows against a basket of currencies after the upward path of U.S. interest rates looked less clear following a Federal Reserve meeting.
The Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates twice more this year after a policy tightening, and it could be more or less aggressive depending on inflation and fiscal policies from the Trump administration. The metal had earlier joined a sell-off in shares, oil and other commodities on concerns that U.S. President Trump had yet to implement mooted tax cuts and infrastructure spending.
The last news from the mines; The union for striking workers at BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine in Chile said after meeting with the company this week that it was open to further conversations that could lead to reopening negotiations. A strike at Peru's top copper mine, Cerro Verde, is set to end by government order on Thursday, but workers said the stoppage would start right back up if no deal over their demands is reached with management. Freeport McMoRan Inc's Indonesian unit has resumed production of copper concentrate at its giant Grasberg mine, ending a more than one-month stoppage.
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The potential for supply disruptions has become an increasing focus in copper markets in the past month with workers at the world's largest mine in Chile set to strike and with Freeport-McMoRan Inc's Grasberg mine in Indonesia yet to be granted a new export permit. Also adding to supply kinks in copper, protests over public work projects in a remote highland region of Peru have blocked roads used by MMG Ltd to transport copper concentrates from its Las Bambas mine.
A strike at BHP Billiton's huge Escondida mine in Chile and a lack of permits for exports from Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia are chipping away at mine supply that is expected to be in a small surplus this year. Escondida produced 1.15 million tonnes of copper in 2015, about 6 percent of the world's total. A potential 1 million tonnes of world output, or 5 percent of supply, may be at risk of disruption this year compared to 600,000 tonnes in 2016.
As a strike at the world's top mine, Escondida in Chile, caused a second week of disruption. Escondida declared force majeure last week. A government-mediated meeting between BHP Billiton and striking workers at its Escondida copper mine in Chile has failed, and workers will head back to their encampment without any future dialogue planned. Furthermore, The chief executive of miner Freeport-McMoran Inc's Indonesian unit has resigned after the parent firm declared force majeure on copper concentrate shipments from its Grasberg mine in Papua. The price of copper rose 2.9 percent to $6.204 on Feb.13 hit its highest level since May 2015, extending the previous session's near 5 percent surge after shipments from the world's two biggest copper mines were disrupted.
Industrial metals were broadly supported by news of steady manufacturing in top copper consumer China. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 51.3 in January, compared with the previous month's 51.4. Also supporting metals, U.S. interest rates can likely remain low through at least 2017, with no clear sense yet of whether the Trump administration's policies will spark higher inflation or growth.
Base metals were also broadly supported, with zinc touching a 2-1/2 month high, after U.S. President Trump calmed international tensions by affirming the "one-China" policy and promised big tax cuts. Trade data from China, the world's biggest metals consumer, also bolstered prices.
China's imports of copper fell 14 percent in January from a year ago as demand from the world's top consumer and producer slowed ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. China's imports of copper were also down 22 percent from December to 380,000 tonnes in January. Trading was dampened by the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange due to reopen on Feb.02
The dollar was on course for its worst start to a year since 2008 as concerns over the broader shape of policy under U.S. President Donald Trump outweighed the expectations of higher U.S. inflation that dominated the end of last year.The U.S. dollar held broad gains against its major rivals, after ending down streak and rebounding overnight as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested U.S interest rates could be raised quickly this year.
The market is awaiting more detail from President-elect Donald Trump on his plans to increase infrastructure spending that could benefit industrial metals.
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Markets started the year on a sombre note due to weak demand growth in top consumer China and massive supply overhangs. Over the course of 2016 the mood brightened as Chinese authorities pumped money into the economy, much of it into infrastructure. That was reinforced by optimism about growth after Donald Trump won the U.S. Presidential election in November, providing another reason for funds to jump on the bandwagon.
Large deliveries of copper to warehouses registered by the LME, thought to be from China, helped fuel the sell-off. Deliveries between Dec. 8 and 16 rose more than 60 percent to 345,475 tonnes. Since then stocks are down more than three percent.
China's manufacturing activity expanded for a fifth month in December. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 51.4 in December, lower than 51.7 in November and staying above the 50-point boom-bust line for the fifth straight month. China shipped in a record 4.95 million tonnes of copper in 2016, up 2.9 percent from a year earlier, while U.S. retail sales rose in December amid strong demand for automobiles and furniture, providing further evidence that the economy ended the fourth quarter with momentum and is poised for stronger growth this year.
Copper prices were tracking a 5 percent monthly loss for December, trimming the year's gains to 17 percent, still the best yearly performance since 2010. Copper started 2017 positive with London trading pushing the metal up, building on a strong 2016, as worries of weakening demand receded with expectations that consumption will be strong in China and the United States.
Before Trump’s inauguration takes place on Friday ,his first news conference on last week since the Nov. 8 election contained no details on tax cuts and infrastructure spending, two factors that had fuelled the five-week rally in stocks and a selloff in global bond markets. After the speech, the dollar fell to the lowest since mid-December against a basket of currencies at 101.160. Copper and other base metals initially gained traction on the back of Trump's November election win amid expectations that spending on rebuilding U.S. infrastructure would soar, soaking up more industrial raw material. Analysts expect copper to continue to reflect such expectations, at least through the first few months, as Trump settles into the White House and his economic blueprint takes shape.
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The market was taking heart from signs U.S. factory activity accelerated to a five-month high in November amid a pickup in new orders and production, suggesting that the manufacturing sector was regaining its footingbring infrastructure spendinggrowth. This rally was driven by a perception that Donald Trump's election as U.S. president would lead to increased U.S. infrastructure spending. It has since unravelled that rally as the market digested the implications for demand.
OPEC’s three largest producers -- Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran -- overcame disagreements to reach November’s landmark deal in a bid to drain record global inventories and bolster the price of crude. OPEC agreed to reduce collective production by 1.2 million barrels a day to 32.5 million and Russia pledged a cut of 300,000 prompting predictions of a possible crude rally to $60 a barrel.
China's imports grew at the fastest pace in more than two years in November, fuelled by its strong thirst for commodities from coal to iron ore, while exports also rose unexpectedly, reflecting a pick-up in both domestic and global demand. China's official PMI rose to 51.7 in November from 51.2.
The dollar surged to its highest in 14 years against a basket of currencies after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points and signalled that a further three increases are likely next year -- one more than forecast at the September meeting. Copper prices slipped as the dollar climbed after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted that interest rates could rise faster next year and higher inventories cast doubt on the strength of demand and expectations of tighter supply. In general copper prices surged 20 percent last month. Momentum was driven by hopes that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump would spend more on infrastructure and that Chinese economic activity and speculative spending would pick up.
Copper inventories in warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose last week, exchange data showed, their biggest daily increase since July 2001. That took them to their highest in around two months. Stocks have surged 62 percent from their early December low. Three-month copper on the LME was down about 3 percent at $5,459 on 19th December. Prices rose to a 17-month peak of $6,045.50 a tonne last month, but have since succumbed to selling. The copper price on Wednesday edged further away from a one-month low hit earlier in the week, with investors betting that stronger U.S. and China economies next year would bolster demand for industrial metals
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Markets are off to a fairly quiet start so far October, with action being muted by week-long holidays in China. We got news out of China that the official manufacturing PMI index came in at 50.4, unchanged from last month. In addition, new export orders increased, while activity in services expanded as well, coming in at 53.7 from 53.5 in August. However, none of these reports had much of an impact on copper prices.
With regard to 13th October market action, zinc and copper are leading the declines, with the latter hitting a four-week low. Copper is likely weaker on account of the latest Chinese September trade data showing another sharp decline in refined imports, down 26% versus last year and off by some 10,000 tons from August. LME copper was being under the most pressure until 24th of October with no real news behind the climb other than what China-related stories kept the complex steady amid rumors of an imminent government stimulus plan being rolled out. Metals are firmer again at the end of the October, ahead of the US Q3 GDP report (expected at 2.5%). London copper finished October on flat.
Base metals rallied sharply on November with the US election. London copper jumped 4 percent to its highest in nearly 16 months on 10th November expectations that policies under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could spur infrastructure spending. The market climbed to its highest since June 2015 at $6,025.50 a tonne on 11th November. London copper futures dropped last week as the dollar soared to a 13-1/2-year high against a basket of currencies after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signalled U.S. interest rates could rise "relatively soon." London copper jumped to $5,939 for a fourth day in a row on Thursday as investors poured funds into metals in expectation of inflation in China and the United States, and on signs of growing strength in the U.S. manufacturing sector today. Bets that the U.S. will raise rates in December and again next year pushed up the dollar, adding to the allure of commodities for investors seeking a hedge against inflation. Meanwhile, China fixed its yuan midpoint at the weakest since June 2008, which also encouraged mainland investors to chase commodities as a hedge against further dollar strength amid lower yields in other asset classes and a steadily improving fundamental picture.
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Most of the market action in September was compressed into the latter part of the month as that was when a number of key events took place. These included the Federal Reserve meeting on the 21st, followed by an informal OPEC meeting a few days later, along with the first US presidential debate squeezed in between the two.
Copper pushed higher during September, gaining roughly $300/ton and getting to almost $4900/ton at one point. However, we since have backed off in October, dragged down by lower precious metals and stronger dolar. On the whole, there has not been much change in copper’s story this past month; the ICSG has the market in a deficit of a 264,000 tons through the first seven months of 2016 but with only modest year-over-year fall in Chiliean refined production and surging Mongolian and Peruvian mine output. Meanwile, copper producers remain profitable. In this regard, we came across some weeks ago showed that even when prices dropped to the 2016 lows of around $4350, the most expensive producers were still managing to break even. Part of the reason margins remain strong is because costs are continuing to fall, led by cheaper energy, freight and labor. A stronger dolar also been helping lately
London copper slipped big part of October with stronger dollar weighed on commodities and concerns about fresh curbs on China's property market, a key consumer of the metal. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange edged down to $4,633.50 a tonne on 21st Oct. But copper prices turn back and edged up on Monday (24th Oct) to $4,754.35 with supply in China's domestic market tightened, more than offsetting a stronger dollar and expectations of ample supply next year. Global markets are bracing for a slew of data this week that may yield more insight into metals demand, including third quarter U.S. GDP and purchasing managers' index (PMI) data from several developed economies.
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Copper was the worst performer in the base metals complex during the August. Maenwhile, a number of reports are showing a marked thigtening in the supply/demand balance, including WBMS numbers that reveal a 197,000 tonnes deficit for the first six months of 2016 ( a surplus of 372,000 tonnes the same period of 2015) and ICSG projection that has the market 306,000 tonnes during the first six months of this year (compared to a 54,000 tonnes deficit seen a year ago). However, investors do not seem alarmed by these shortfalls, largely because the expect surpluses to emerge over the balance of the year.
Chilean output ise lagging, with first half output of some 5 percent (at 3.28 million tonnes year to date thorugh July). Peru is more than making up for the slack. Morever despite the projected WBMS/ICSG deficits, LME stocks are not showing any singn of stres increasing about 84,000 tonnes this past month (to almost a one-year high). Shangai holdings have been flat in August and are not offsetting the LME increases.
We see copper trading $4582-4869 during September. Copper rallied to a six-week high to $4869 on 22.09.2016 as the dollar slipped after the U.S. central bank left benchmark interest rates unchanged, though gains were limited by worries about slow demand growth. The Fed left rates on hold and projected a less aggressive path for rises over the coming years. That exerted pressure on the U.S. currency, a weakening of which makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for non-U.S. firms. "Central banks are happy to support what economic growth there is with cheap money; that's fuel for industrial metals," said Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar."But the market will struggle to sustain rallies because demand isn't strong . Also expected to weigh on metals is weak demand growth in China, which consumes nearly half of all industrial metals produced.
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Several banks, including the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the PBOC and the Federal Reserve, all decided to keep their powder dry for the time being, thus bringing a four-month run in commodities to a halt in July.
Copper prices finished largely unchanged over the course of July, fluctuating between $4685-$5032. For much of the month, the metal took a back seat to other highfliers like zinc and nickel, mainly because there was no compelling change in copper’s fundamentals. In this regard, Chinese June copper imports continued to fall for a third month in a row, with overall intake at 305,000 tons, a 10-month low. However, the cumulative Jan-June total is just over 2.07 mln tons, a respectable 24% over last year. Still, Chinese demand is likely growing at low single digits at best, which suggests that these imports are likely being stockpiled, arbitraged (perhaps explaining the 200,000 tons of copper that has been exported so far this year), or financed.
In other news, the ICGS reports that the refined market was in a 119,000-ton deficit in the first four months of this year, compared to a 13,000-ton surplus in the same period a year earlier. But with all major producers reporting sharp year-over-year production increases (led by Peru, up some 50% y-o-y, as the Cerro Verde and Las Bambas mines come on stream). Chinese deals were reported to be close to that level as well as China continue to ramp up its production, up 7.5% through June over year ago levels. The latest Reuters poll has an average forecast price of $4751/ton for copper in 2016, rising to $4980 next year. Analysts also see a surplus of 185,000 tons this year, rising to a 204,000 surplus in 2017.
On the first day of August London copper hit the highest since July 22 at $4,965 a tonne. But copper gave all gains immediately with concerns of China’s economic growth . London copper continue to edged down after a solid jobs report boosted prospects the U.S. Federal Reserve could still raise rates this year, and ahead of China trade data that could shed light on its appetite for metals. London copper drifted on 8th of August, when prices fell to their weakest since July 12 at $4,761 a tonne, as inflation in China eased in July, highlighting worries about the health of the world's top copper consumer after imports fell last month. LME copper traded up 0.2 percent to $4,830 a tonne by 1358 GMT, adding to gains of 0.9 percent made a day earlier. Prices on Tuesday fell to the lowest in four weeks at $4,761 a tonne.
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